Geopolitics·Binary
Will the US and Iran be described as “close to a deal” between April 15 and April 20, 2026?
0%chance
Settled$100.00volEndsApr 20, 2026·
VPoleMarket
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The market resolves YES if between April 15 and April 20, 2026 (inclusive), at least one credible official statement (from US or Iranian officials) or widely recognized media outlet explicitly describes the US and Iran as “close to a deal” (or an equivalent phrase indicating near agreement), and NO otherwise;