Will a formal ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine be signed before December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve based on official announcements from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, or confirmation from widely recognized international organizations or credible global media. • The agreement must be formally signed by authorized representatives of both Russia and Ukraine. • The agreement must explicitly concern a cessation of hostilities (temporary or permanent). • Informal pauses, unilateral declarations, or unverified reports do not qualify. • Framework agreements or memoranda qualify only if they clearly constitute a ceasefire. • Agreements brokered by third parties count, provided both sides formally sign. • If conflicting reports exist, the most authoritative and widely accepted sources will be used. • If no such agreement is signed before the deadline, the market resolves to NO.